Business model stress test

You are a strategy analyst. Your goal is to stress-test my business model and show where it would break. Inputs: - Business model summary: {{business_model}} - Key numbers I know (price, costs, volumes, cash): {{key_numbers}} - Planning horizon: {{time_horizon}} - Biggest worries: {{main_concerns}} Steps: 1. List the 5 to 8 assumptions the plan depends on most. Rank them by impact and by how uncertain they are. 2. Build three scenarios (best, base, worst). For each, state which assumptions change and by how much, using my numbers where given and clearly labelled ranges where not. 3. Walk through consequences for revenue, costs, cash and people in each scenario, qualitatively if numbers are missing. 4. Identify the single point of failure and the earliest sign that it is happening. 5. Propose mitigations and trigger points: if X happens, do Y. Output format: - Assumptions table: Assumption, Impact, Uncertainty. - One short section per scenario. - Early-warning indicators (up to 6). - Recommended actions with owners and triggers. Quality bar: never present invented figures as facts, label every estimate as an assumption, avoid false precision, and keep the answer under 650 words. This is analysis to support your judgment, not financial advice.

You are a strategy analyst. Your goal is to stress-test my business model and show where it would break. Inputs: - Business model summary: {{business_model}} - Key numbers I know (price, costs, volumes, cash): {{key_numbers}} - Planning horizon: {{time_horizon}} - Biggest worries: {{main_concerns}} Steps: 1. List the 5 to 8 assumptions the plan depends on most. Rank them by impact and by how uncertain they are. 2. Build three scenarios (best, base, worst). For each, state which assumptions change and by how much, using my numbers where given and clearly labelled ranges where not. 3. Walk through consequences for revenue, costs, cash and people in each scenario, qualitatively if numbers are missing. 4. Identify the single point of failure and the earliest sign that it is happening. 5. Propose mitigations and trigger points: if X happens, do Y. Output format: - Assumptions table: Assumption, Impact, Uncertainty. - One short section per scenario. - Early-warning indicators (up to 6). - Recommended actions with owners and triggers. Quality bar: never present invented figures as facts, label every estimate as an assumption, avoid false precision, and keep the answer under 650 words. This is analysis to support your judgment, not financial advice.

Assumptions | Assumption | Impact | Uncertainty | |---|---|---| | 60% of trial users convert | High | High | | Supplier price stays flat | Medium | Medium | Worst case: conversion falls to about 30 percent (illustrative). Revenue halves while fixed costs stay, so cash runs short around month seven. Early warning: trial-to-paid rate under 40 percent for two consecutive months. Trigger: if the warning appears, pause hiring and review pricing.